FiT, market premium and merchant revenue in Ukraine: what changes project value?
Compare Ukrainian renewable revenue models through eligibility, contracts, capture prices, balancing costs, curtailment and cash collection.
Jurisdiction: Ukraine. Sources reviewed . Periodic review required. Next scheduled editorial review: . Material rule changes require earlier review.
Value a renewable asset using the revenue arrangement it actually holds, not the arrangement a buyer might obtain later. Feed-in tariff (FiT), market premium and merchant sales change eligibility, counterparties, price exposure, balancing responsibility and cash timing. A corporate PPA is a contractual route within the sales model, not proof that every risk disappears.
Separate support entitlement, measured delivery, settlement, recognised revenue and cash received. A favourable legal entitlement does not establish prompt collection.
Compare the actual routes
Table — scroll horizontally if needed
| Model | Evidence to request | Exposure to test | Valuation implication |
|---|---|---|---|
| FiT sale | Applicable tariff decision, eligible scope, agreement and balancing arrangements | Payment timing, deductions, delivery and current rules | Model collectible supported revenue for the remaining applicable period |
| Market premium | Eligibility and executed premium-service arrangement plus market-sales route | Reference-price calculation, actual capture price, settlement and payment timing | Reconcile commercial sales and support; do not add two full tariffs |
| Merchant sale | Trading/BRP route, actual metering, settlements and operating profile | Interval prices, imbalance, fees, constraints and credit | Stress market cash flow rather than use a flat annual price |
| Corporate PPA | Signed price, volume, delivery and risk-allocation terms | Buyer credit, shape, basis, balancing and termination | Underwrite the enforceable contract, including residual exposure |
Article 9-1 of the Alternative Energy Sources Law addresses the FiT framework. Article 65 of the Electricity Market Law addresses the Guaranteed Buyer and market-premium arrangements. Eligibility, calculations and applicable amendments must be checked for the asset and period. No current tariff or universal support entitlement is stated here.
A premium is not a second electricity sale
A market-premium model needs separate schedules for electricity sales and the support service. Use the applicable calculation, reference period, eligible quantities, exclusions and contract terms. The project’s realised selling price may differ from the reference price used for support; do not assume the mechanism guarantees its total cash revenue.
When comparing a move between models, identify effective dates, notices, balancing-group changes, contract conditions and the treatment of historical receivables. Have advisers check whether the route is available and what transition obligations apply. Put a potential change in a separate scenario until it is supported.
Use the generation profile to build price
A wholesale solar capture price weights each interval’s market price by the plant’s generation in MWh: sum of price × generation, divided by total generation. ACER’s 2026 market report uses the weighted market-price concept. Specify the market, period and output boundary; contractual realised revenue per MWh and cash collected are separate measures. A capture price can differ materially from a baseload index. Additional solar output concentrated in the same hours does not guarantee proportional revenue growth.
Table — scroll horizontally if needed
| Monthly reconciliation | Data required | Question |
|---|---|---|
| Potential to metered output | Resource, availability, losses and meter records | Why did output differ from the technical expectation? |
| Output to settled sales | Restrictions, accepted quantities and settlement corrections | Which delivered volumes were paid or adjusted? |
| Sales to net revenue | Prices, premiums, fees and imbalance statements | What is retained after the sales route costs? |
| Revenue to cash | Receivables, bank receipts and subsequent collections | What cash funds operations and debt? |
Classify curtailment, emergency restrictions, grid constraints and equipment outages separately where records allow. Do not assume every lost MWh is compensable or value compensation without a substantiated entitlement and collection assessment.
Give balancing costs their own line
Obtain the balancing agreement, allocation formula, actual invoices, revisions and collateral terms. Model the generation forecast and settlement interval consistently. Article 70 provides the imbalance-settlement framework; actual exposure depends on the participation route and contracts.
For storage added to a supported solar asset, check charging origin, metering and the applicable supported-delivery provisions. Co-location does not allow grid-charged electricity to be relabelled automatically as supported renewable output.
Translate the evidence into an offer
Show a base case based on existing rights, a downside for price/collection/constraints and a separate uncommitted transition case. Identify working capital, contract expiry and the point when merchant exposure increases. Treat guarantees of origin separately and verify ownership before adding income.
Read the cash-collection guide and corporate PPA checklist. Discuss your mandate with the revenue arrangements and evidence you can underwrite.